Sorry, Clubhouse is doomed.

You know it when people like A N D Y F O O T E, who spent a lot of time on CH, are talking about its failure.

Here’s my take on CH’s Phoenix-like rise and fall:

1. CH was the right product at the right time…but only for a short period of time.

With COVID, people were bored, isolated, and lonely. CH filled the gap. It was an easy way to connect with other people. As COVID retreats, the need to talk with strangers fades away.

2. FOMO.

People didn’t want to make the same mistake they made with TikTok, dismissing the platform only to see it become super-popular. It’s why you saw people with significant LinkedIn connections jump into CH with both feet, even though it meant spending less time on LinkedIn (their bread and butter platform)

3. Content barriers

A social media pillar is discoverability.

You hook people by making it easy to consume lots of content. On CH, that’s not happening. The only way to discover interesting rooms is if they’re promoted on other social platforms.

Context: CH has millions of users so it’s not a complete failure. It’s sort of like Friendster, the Facebook-like social media network that was big in Indonesia and South America for some reason.

Predictions:

The launch of Clubhouse’s Android app could create a dead cat bounce but it won’t make a big difference.

CH will be “acquired” for $1B to $2B so the Silicon Valley VCs don’t look dumb for giving CH a $4B valuation.

This article originally appeared on the Marketing Spark blog.